bitcoin (btc) will cost $1 million by 2030, insists one of the industry’s best-known experts, as countries around the world shun the euro and US dollar.
In his latest blog post published on April 27, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto derivatives giant bitmex, doubled down on his sky-high price prediction for bitcoin and gold.
Reading: Can bitcoin hit 1 million
bitcoin, gold, commodities… but not fiat
In light of the sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, a giant shift in both geopolitical and economic policy is looming, Hayes said.
like the us And the European Union are struggling to reduce their dependence on Russian food and energy, the long-term repercussions will almost certainly hurt them and send bitcoins to the moon.
The situation is complex. Inflation, already at a 40-year high before the Ukraine conflict, is being exacerbated by Western sanctions, while Russia reels from the West freezing hundreds of billions of dollars in offshore assets .
Meanwhile, China is reviewing the situation with a view to protecting itself from a copycat movement targeting its assets.
Since the late 1990s, a virtuous circle has seen China sell cheap goods to the West in exchange for its fiat currency, which is then returned to importers in exchange for government debt. this keeps interest rates low, and as a result, Chinese goods become even cheaper.
Supply chain disruption, inflation and now the risk of asset forfeiture is changing the status quo. Rather than change its production model, however, Hayes believes China will need to find a way to reduce its exposure to worst-case scenarios.
“It is impossible for China to sell trillions of dollars and euros worth of assets without destroying the global financial system. that hurts both the west and china alike and to a great extent,” he wrote.
hayes identified “storable commodities, gold and bitcoin” as possible selling points for beijing. While such a situation would be at the extreme ends of the spectrum, there should nonetheless be a non-zero chance of China changing its stance on issues like bitcoin mining.
“Doom loop” will spark $1-million Bitcoin, $20,000 gold
More surprising, however, is the publication’s perspective on the future of Western democracies and, in particular, of the European Union.
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Unable to be self-sufficient, Hayes argues, excluding Russia will fuel an unstoppable fire that will result in the disintegration of the European project.
exporters like germany will not be able to compete with china, while rampant inflation will create internal anger within the eu between north and south.
“the ecb is trapped, the eu is finished and within a decade we will be trading lira, drachma and deutschmark once again”, says his prediction.
A million dollars for every bitcoin will also come as a result of the “fatal loop” in western financial policy, in particular yield curve control (ycc), as a tool to prevent bankruptcy.
Gold, still the darling of the store of value narrative, will hit $20,000 an ounce by the end of the decade.
To conclude, Hayes issued a call to arms to bitcoiners, warning that the bitcoin network needs participation in order to survive.
“the cycle of doom will usher in $1 million bitcoin and $10,000-$20,000 gold by the end of the decade. We should campaign for interested flags to save some of their checking account surplus in bitcoin to sprout bitcoin farm-to-fork economies around the world. again, unlike gold, bitcoin must move; otherwise the network will crash,” the blog post concludes.
As Cointelegraph reported, Hayes is no stranger to sky-high price predictions, having noted a btc price “in millions” in his previous post from March.
reacting, macro analyst alex krüger, however, asked to rethink some of his points.
“will leave many readers scarred with the mindset of a gold lover who believes the world is doomed forever,” he tweeted, saying Hayes “fabricates facts and exaggerates things to make his fat-tailed narratives seem very safe . ”
“The dovishness of the Federal Reserve again starts a new upward trend. ycc is one way that could happen,” he acknowledged in the comments.
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